Sun, Nov 29, 2020 @ 04:27 GMT
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Sterling Surges on Johnson’s Defeat in Lords, Markets Mixed Elsewhere

Sterling surges broadly today, as traders apparently cheers Prime Minister Boris Johnson's defeat in the Lords regarding his internal market bill. But the forex markets are relatively quiet elsewhere. New Zealand Dollar is currently the second strongest, following the Pound. Swiss Franc is the weakest, followed by Canadian and...

German ZEW dropped to 39 in Nov, worries over recession

German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 39.0 in November, down from 56.1, slightly below expectation of 40.0. Current Situation index dropped to -64.3, down form -59.5, slightly above expectation of -65.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 32.8, down from 52.4, missed expectation of 43.3. Current Situation indicator rose...

EUR On The Upside Ahead Of ZEW

Later today, ZEW survey results of November will be released for Germany (current situation at -65.0, expectations at 44.0 expected). From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, EUR/USD has rebounded and now stands above its 50-day moving average (in blue). Readers may therefore consider the potential for...

Vaccine Hopes Fuel Strong Risk Rally

Market movers today German macro. The ZEW figures will give us a first glimpse how the economy is faring in November and how much the partial lockdowns have dented economic expectations. Nordic inflation. In Denmark and Sweden, we get October CPI figures, see more below. Fed. We have several Fed speeches today....

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Investors already forgot about yesterday’s FOMC meeting by the time of the European opening bell. Justifiably so given the US central bank’s unsurprising message. They remained sidelined, obviously pointing to downside risks stemming from rising COVID-infections which eat into US savings. Fed Chair Powell renewed his call on fiscal...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The US election results are still being counted as we speak. Markets whipsawed amid the slew of incoming results, from assuming a solid Biden victory (betting odds stood at somewhere around 70% at the start) followed by a Trump comeback (Biden odds slumped to 20%) to back to the...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets A string of dissatisfying US tech earnings triggered a sharp sell-off in US after-market hours yesterday. The risk-off repositioning for the first time this week rolled-over into Asian dealings and into the European open as well (about 1% lower). Q3 GDP growth figures in Europe were all better than...

Traders Calm ahead of Pre-Election Weekend, Dollar Pares Gains

Investors are rather calm just ahead of the pre-election weekend. European indices quickly pare back initial losses, while DOW future is down not as much before open. Dollar is also giving up some of this week's gains, despite pretty solid personal income and spending data. On the other hand,...

Germany GDP grew 8.2% qoq in Q3, still -4.2% below pre-pandemic level

Germany GDP grew 8.2% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 7.3% qoq. But that's not enough to recovery the -9.7% qoq contraction in Q2. Also, when compared with Q4 of 2019, before the pandemic, GDP was still -4.2% lower. Destatis said "growth was based on higher final consumption expenditure of...

EUR/USD 1.1612 Is The Next Reference To The Downside And Has To Hold Going Into The Weekend

Markets Economic data, including US Q3 growth, jobless claims and economic confidence in the euro zone were a bright spot for markets. Wall Street eked out gains of 0.5-1.6% after the deepest rout in four months. Europe ended a choppy session still in the red, profiting only temporarily from the...

U.S Futures Try to Rebound – Watch PINS, TIF, F, SPOT, CMCSA

The S&P 500 Futures are posting a tentative rebound after they encountered another selloff yesterday. Investors were deeply worried that the surge in coronavirus cases world-wide, particularly in Europe and the U.S., would lead to further lockdown measures. Later today, the U.S. Commerce Department will report 3Q annualized GDP (+32.0%...

Sell, Mortimer! Sell!

Europe equity markets slide on German, French lockdowns The blue wave trade became Moody Blue overnight, as buy everything turned into sell everything. Although Asian markets wobbled yesterday, it was Europe that led the rout as France and Germany enacted national lockdowns lite in an attempt to control their exploding...

A ‘Sea Of Red’ As We Enter ECB-Day

Market movers today The main event today is the ECB meeting. Key focus will be on ECB's assessment of the latest surge in COVID-19 cases, its take on the Eurozone economy of new restrictions and to what extent new stimulus is warranted. We think that the ECB will sound open...

Intensifying Worries on Very Serious Coronavirus Situation in Europe, Dollar and Yen Surge on Risk Aversion

Intensifying worries over out-of-control coronavirus spread in Europe push European stocks to 5-month low today. US futures also point to sharply lower open as this week's decline would likely extend. Dollar and Yen jump on risk aversion, followed by Swiss Franc to a slightly smaller extend. Australian Dollar and...

DIW: Second wave of coronavirus threatens to stifle German economy upswing

Germany's DIW institute warned that second wave of coronavirus infections "has arrived" and "threatens to stifle the economy upswing". After growing around 6% in Q3, further prospects are "gloomy considerably". DIW economic barometer for Q4 dropped from 122 pts to 105 pts. "The upswing will very likely be slowed down...

Tech Outperforms Value Amid Shaky Risk Appetite

Market movers today Tackling the escalating COVID-19 crisis is a key focus in Europe. Ahead of her policy statement in front of the Bundestag tomorrow, German chancellor Angela Merkel will meet again today with state premiers to discuss possible new coronavirus restrictions, such as bar and restaurant closures. President Macron...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Interpreting market moves feels familiar these days. Trading revolved around the dire evolution in the pandemic with little attention to mixed economic data. September US durable goods orders beat estimates (1.9% m/m vs. 0.5%). However, a gauge for capital investments (capital good shipments excluding aircrafts) disappointed slightly as did...

Dollar Shrugs Strong Durables, Softer in Tight Range

Dollar weakens again today but stay in very tight range as indecisive trading continues. The stronger than expected durable goods orders were are ignored by the markets. White House's comment that stimulus deal will be there in "coming weeks" is also shrugged off. Swiss Franc is following Dollar is...

Scholz: Additional coronavirus measures to taken as uniformly as possible across Germany

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said the country is dealing with "exponential growth" of coronavirus infections while "the number of new infections is rising by 70-75% compared to the week before." He expected number of daily new cases to jump to 20k a day at the end of this...

Third Wave Weighs Heavily On Markets

Market movers today Today's main market mover is US consumer confidence for October. After the rebound in September as the second coronavirus wave abated, the indicator is expected to stay broadly unchanged as improved employment prospects are weighed down by the uncertainty about further fiscal stimulus. Other than that the key...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Stock markets shed 1% (US) to 2% (Europe) currently against a deteriorating Corona-background at both sides of the Atlantic. German IFO business sentiment printed near consensus, confirming the German outperformance witnessed in last week’s PMI’s, but didn’t shift trading dynamics. It was all about risk sentiment today given the...

Canadian Dollar Drags Down By Oil Price Fall, Dollar Shows Some Firmness

Movements in the forex markets are rather limited in European session, with some firmness seen in Dollar and Sterling. One focus is on the selloff in Canadian Dollar, which is dragged down by the steep decline in oil prices. Euro's mild weakness is also worth a note, as partly...

Bundesbank: German economy recovery likely to continue in Q4, albeit a much slower pace

Bundesbank said economic output in Germany is "likely to have increased sharply" in Q3. In terms of quarterly GDP, the economy "could have made up for a little more than half of the drastic slump" in 1H. But it's still around -5% below pre-crisis level at Q4 2019. From...

Germany Ifo business climate dropped to 92.7, first decline after five months of rises

Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped slightly to 92.7 in October, down from 93.2, matched expectations. That's the first decline after five consecutive rises. Current Assessment rose to 90.3, up from 89.2, beat expectation of 89.7. Expectations Index dropped to 95.0, down form 97.4, missed expectation of 96.0. Ifo President Clemens...

New US COVID-19 Records And Tighter Restrictions In Europe

Market movers today The main release today are the German IFO numbers for October. We expect the IFO indicator to mirror the PMI release on Friday and to show a manufacturing sector doing quite well while the service sector faces headwinds from the surge in COVID-19 cases. The expectation index...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets Market attention shifted to Europe today with new PMIs due. The October readings in most cases already dipped back into contraction territory, suggesting the recovery during the third quarter was a one-off as the coronavirus resurges across Europa (and the US). The EMU composite PMI fell from 50.4 to...

Dollar Softens Again as Global Stocks Regain Ground ahead of Weekend

Dollar is back under pressure today as global stock markets strengthen mildly before weekend. Though, overall markets are relatively mixed as we're seeing some strengthen in both Swiss Franc, Euro and Aussie. On the other hand, Sterling, and Canadian are softer. The developments suggest that major pairs and crosses...

German PMI manufacturing hits 30-month high, but services contract

Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 58.0 in October, up from 56.4, above expectation of 55.5. That's also the highest level in 30 months. However, PMI Services dropped to 48.9, down from 50.6, missed expectation of 49.0. PMI Composite hit a 2-month low at 54.5, down from 54.7. Phil Smith, Associate...

Dollar Recovers Mildly after Job Data, Markets Tread Water

Dollar recovers in early US session, with help from better than expected job data. Yet, it remains the weakest one for the week at this point. Buying momentum for the greenback doesn't warrant a reversal yet. The forex markets are mixed for now, with mild weakness in Sterling and...

EUR Impacted By German Consumer Confidence

Earlier this morning, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Index for November was released at -3.1, below -3.0 expected. Later today, the European Commission will post October Consumer Confidence Index (-15.0 expected). From a technical point of view, on a 30-min chart, EUR/USD has broken below rising trend line and stands below...