Sample Category Title

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1383

The reversal at 1.1470 led to a precise dip to 1.1360 major support and the outlook is positive above that area, for a test of 1.1420 and a violation of the latter will establish a new trading range between 1.1500 and 1.1360 boundaries, which will lead to a test of 1.1600 zone. An eventual break on the downside will challenge 1.1260.

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.80

The reversal at 112.30 signals a minor corrective pattern below 113.10 before slide towards 111.40. An eventual break through 113.10 will trigger an attack of 113.70.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2799

Despite the failure at 1.2880, I don't think, that there is much room on the downside, so expect a break though 1.2880 to unleash a rise for 1.3040.

Italy's Istat, National Institute of Statistics, revised down both 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts. For 2018, growth is projected to be at 1.1%, down from May's forecast of 1.4%. For 2019, growth is projected to be at 1.3%. Istat noted that "this projections take into account the less favourable international framework and the expansionary fiscal policies implemented in the 2018 Budget Law."

Istat's forecast for 2019 is notably lower than the coalition government's overly optimistic 1.5%. But it's higher than European Commission's 1.2% and IMF's 1.0%. GDP forecast is a key figure in Italy's draft budget plan. European Commission is expected to publish a report formally starting the so called Excessive Deficit Procedure against Italy today.

Ahead of that Euro is lifted mildly while Italian yield dips on news that Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini may be open to reviewing its 2019 budget. The La Stampa daily said he's ready to lower planned spending on a citizens' income and the unwinding of a previous pension reform. But it also be noted that League, which Salvini heads, is just part of the coalition. Five Star Movement Luigi Di Maio has to agree to Salvini's idea, if the plan is to be revised.

Quite update on this: Reuters then reported, quoting an unnamed governmetn source that "The League rules out revising the fiscal plan.”

Italian 10 year yield is currently down -0.087 at 3.530. German 10 year yield is up 0.016 at 0.371 at the time of writing. That, is, German-Italian Spread is still above 300 at 315. Not much to cheer yet.

Pivot (invalidation): 55.00

Our preference Short positions below 55.00 with targets at 52.85 & 52.10 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 55.00 look for further upside with 55.45 & 56.10 as targets.

Comment The RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.4200

Our preference Short positions below 14.4200 with targets at 14.2000 & 14.0800 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 14.4200 look for further upside with 14.4900 & 14.5700 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 1226.00

Our preference Short positions below 1226.00 with targets at 1217.50 & 1213.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1226.00 look for further upside with 1229.00 & 1234.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 2670.00

Our preference Short positions below 2670.00 with targets at 2628.00 & 2600.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 2670.00 look for further upside with 2688.00 & 2744.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 11190.00

Our preference Short positions below 11190.00 with targets at 11000.00 & 10920.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11190.00 look for further upside with 11240.00 & 11353.00 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 11190.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 11000.00 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.3640

Our preference Long positions above 5.3640 with targets at 5.4210 & 5.4500 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 5.3640 look for further downside with 5.3350 & 5.3050 as targets.

Comment A support base at 5.3640 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7250

Our preference Short positions below 0.7250 with targets at 0.7200 & 0.7185 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.7250 look for further upside with 0.7270 & 0.7285 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.7250 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7200 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3285

Our preference Long positions above 1.3285 with targets at 1.3320 & 1.3350 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3285 look for further downside with 1.3265 & 1.3240 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.