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GBPAUD is currently printing fresh 2 ½-month lows, extending the downtrend off 1.8724 below the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day (simple) moving average (MA). The short-term bias is still negative as the MACD continues to fluctuate in bearish territory and below its red signal line, with the red Tenkan-sen line adding further bearish signals as the indicator points strongly to the downside. Yet the RSI suggests that the pair is near oversold levels and hence an upside correction could be around the corner; the indicator is set to cross below its 30 oversold barrier.

In case the market shows recovery, resistance is expected to come around 1.7950, slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upleg from 1.7282 to 1.8724. This area has proved to be a strong barrier to upside and downside movements over the past 12 months, therefore it could attract immediate attention. Further up, bullish actions may stretch towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.8168, while a beat at this point could drive the price towards the 1.8380-1.8473 region, identified by the 23.6% Fibo and the highs seen in April. It’s also worth noting that this zone encapsulates the upper surface of the Ichimoku cloud.

On the other hand, additional declines may push the price towards the 78.6% Fibonacci of 1.7587 before the 1.7500 round level comes into view. If the obstacles fail to hold, the focus will shift to the 1.7400 support.

Turning to the medium-term picture, the positive outlook has significantly deteriorated towards a neutral one following the peak at 1.8724. With the pair now trading below the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day MA losing steam, the picture could worsen even further.

Overall, GBPAUD is bearish in the short-term, while in the medium-term the outlook turned to neutral.

NZDUSD recorded a fresh four-and-a-half month high of 0.6821 on Thursday and is set to create the third bullish day in a row. The price surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 0.7060 to 0.6423, around 0.6818, suggesting that the bullish movement is strengthening in the near term. The RSI indicator entered the overbought zone with strong momentum, while the MACD oscillator is rising in the positive territory.

If the bulls continue to have the upper hand, the price could challenge the next immediate resistance of the 0.6850, taken from the high on July 26. If there are further advances, the pair could hit the 0.6920 barrier, reached on June 25.

If the price fails to print a green day above the 0.6813 resistance, a retracement is possible until the 20-and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs), which are overlapping at 0.6760. Even lower, the 0.6700 psychological area could be the next level for investors to have in mind.

Overall, the short-term outlook appears bearish, and the medium-term one is shifting from bearish to more neutral to bullish one.

The Australian dollar surged in early Thursday's trading, advancing 0.7% in Asia, boosted by upbeat Australian jobs data which showed strong rise in employment in Oct (32.8K vs 19.9K f/c and 7.8K prev) while unemployment remained unchanged at 5%. Weaker US dollar and higher metal's prices added to bullish sentiment.

Fresh rally emerged above falling thick daily cloud and looks for retest of last week's highs at 0.7302, where recovery stalled. Strong resistances lay at 0.73 zone (0.7306 – Fibo 61.8% of 0.7483/0.7019 and 0.7314 – 26 Sep high) break of which would spark further recovery and generate stronger reversal signal.

Daily studies maintain strong bullish momentum, with multiple bull-crosses of daily MA's underpinning the advance.

Strong supports at 0.7256/47 (broken 100SMA/broken daily cloud top) are expected to hold and keep bulls in play.

Focus turns towards upcoming meeting of US president Trump and China's President Xi, outcome of which is expected to generate significant direction signals.

If two leaders make progress in talks regarding persisting trade tensions and sideline persisting concerns about the escalation of trade war, the Aussie may rally stronger and signal reversal of larger downtrend.

Res: 0.7302, 0.7314, 0.7374, 0.7447
Sup: 0.7247, 0.7228, 0.7188, 0.7164

The British pound plunged in early European trading on news that UK Brexit minister Dominic Raab resigned.

Cable dipped to two-day low at 1.2846 on news, reversing the most of recovery in past two days and shifting focus towards pivotal support at 1.2827 (12 Nov low).

Technical structure on lower timeframes weakened, keeping the downside vulnerable, with loss of 1.2827 pivot to risk return to key near-term support at 1.2695 (30 Oct low).

Since the pound was very sensitive on any news about Brexit, which was recently the key driver, today’s news could have very strong impact on pound’s sentiment, as concerns of disorderly divorce on no-deal scenario rise again.

UK retail sales are due in a while (Oct m/m 0.2% f/c vs -0.8% prev) but would have minor impact on better than expected results as Brexit story dominates.

Res: 1.2937, 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3029
Sup: 1.2846, 1.2827, 1.2764, 1.2695

The pound strengthened yesterday and during today's Asian session, as UK's PM got the Cabinet's approval for the Brexit deal negotiated. The deal is considered as allowing the UK to avoid the messy hard Brexit departure for the EU, however it still needs the UK parliament's approval. In a statement made after the Cabinet meeting UK's PM Theresa May, made a bold statement giving parliament three options, this deal, no deal or no Brexit, adding pressure on Parliament for the deal's approval. Brexit hard liners are expected to react angrily and it remains uncertain whether the PM will be able to pass the deal through Parliament. Hence gains for the pound seem capped, by worries about the final outcome. Volatility is expected to continue for the pound, as further Brexit headlines could continue to reel in and UK financial data are due out today.

Cable experienced some volatile trading yesterday, however was not able to clearly break the 1.3015 (R1) resistance line. We could see the pair continuing to trade in a volatile manner today and we expect the pair to be sensitive to any further Brexit news, as well as the UK and US financial releases later today. Should the bulls be in control of the pair's direction we may see it breaking the 1.3015 (R1) resistance line and aim for, if not break the 1.3075 (R2) resistance hurdle. Should the bears take over, we could see cable breaking the 1.2920 (S1) support line and aim for lower grounds.

USD retreats further as risk sentiment improves

The USD retreated further yesterday, against its major counterparts as the risk sentiment improved after the UK Cabinet backed the Brexit deal. Analysts point out that the US Dollar continues to maintain tis safe haven status and are considering a hawkish Fed and robust financial data, as drivers of a possible comeback. Analysts also point out that he Dollar's correction yesterday was due to the rallies of the EUR and GBP on Brexit, but also the AUD due to favorable employment data early this morning. We could see the volatility for the USD increasing, as favorable US financial data are expected to be released later today.

AUD/USD rallied during today's Asian session, breaking the 0.7240 (S1) resistance level (now turned to support) and testing the 0.7280 (R1) resistance line. We could see the bullish sentiment continue to drive the market if the positive sentiment for the Aussie continues and at the same time the USD weakens further. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path we could see it breaking the 0.7280 (R1) resistance line and aim fi not break the 0.7315 (R2) resistance level. Should on the other hand the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it dropping and breaking the 0.7240 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.7200 (S2) support area.

In today's other economic highlights:

In today's European session we get UK's retail sales growth rates for October. In the American session we get the US retail sales growth rates for October, later on the Philly Fed Business index and last but not least the EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure. As for speakers, Riksbank's deputy governor Jochnick, ECB's Coeure and Praet, BoE's Tenreyro and Fed's chair Jerome Powell, as well as Quarles, Bostic and Kashkari, speak.

AUD/USD H4

Support: 0.7240 (S1), 0.7200 (S2), 0.7160 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7280 (R1), 0.7315 (R2), 0.7360 (R3)

GBP/USD 4H

Support: 1.2920 (S1), 1.2850 (S2), 1.2780 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3015 (R1), 1.3075 (R2), 1.3160 (R3)

Investors have gone from contemplating the prospect of oil at $100 to sub-$50 in less than two months. No wonder global markets are playing catch-up. From stocks and bonds to currencies, assets worldwide are gripped by a crude awakening. Monday saw oil's largest one-day drop in three years, securing its longest losing streak on record.

Early trading jitters on Wednesday suggested the sell-off may not be over, though West Texas Intermediate later climbed after OPEC President Suhail Al Mazrouei said the group and its allies would do what is needed to balance the market. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped on Wednesday, with oil and gas companies among the big losers. There could be more pain in store. The performance of energy shares relative to the broader index has yet to hit year-to-date lows despite elevated price swings in the oil-market complex.

In the U.S., energy stocks were the biggest drag on the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday as the benchmark gauge reversed a gain of more than 1 percent to finish in the red. The jump in volatility of the oil price will feed into already bruised U.S. stocks, according to Macro Risk Advisors. About $80 million flowed out of the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production exchange-traded fund, ticker XOP, on Tuesday. That was the third day of withdrawals and the largest in more than two weeks. The corporate bond market had taken the slide in crude on the chin but Tuesday's rout may force investors to pay closer attention. U.S. investment-grade debt was already facing the worst year since 2008, and energy securities make up some 15 percent of the BBB rated universe.

Declining oil is a two-sided coin for the collection of assets and economies classed as emerging markets. Many of the countries, such as Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, are energy exporters that suffer when prices decline. Others, like Turkey and India, have to import fuels and so benefit from cheaper energy.

Bitcoin dropped below one year low but this should not be a concern for those who are in this game for a long term. Theresa May has secured a deal while members of her party have prepared a plan to push her out of the office.

The king of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, is facing a turmoil as investors have started to ask the question how low will we go from here?. This was the conversation we were having with our investors. What we said was; put some cash for the crash. There is no doubt that crypto giant, Bitcoin has a major support but it is currently under pressure, but so is the heavyweight of tech giant, Apple.

Bitcoin is here to stay and that is what you should keep in mind. Most importantly, make sure that you put some cash aside for the crash. The first rule of investment is that you don’t sell when everyone is selling and you don’t buy when everyone is buying. This is the major philosophy which has worked for decades. So why sell Bitcoin now?

Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin, yes it has broken some meaningful levels and the current move was mainly due to the trigger of many stop levels which were sitting at one year low and of course, the psychological level of $6,000.

The simple fact is that I am not selling Bitcoin in my portfolio. In fact, I am not even interested in this day to day market action. So the recent sell-off has not changed my view about the technology or the potential it has. Wait for the currency or the debt crisis and the day it knocks on the door, guess who is going to answer the door? Bitcoin.

Back into our traditional markets, we have seen another slide in the U.S equities over on Wall Street yesterday and this was led by the tech sector. The forceful; Apple dropped below the critical level of $190 as more and more analysts dropped their sales estimates. These guys are way behind the curve and the market is necessarily reacting to Apple’s feeble sales outlook. Apple hasn't produced anything meaning in a long time and we all know that, so just waking up to this situation is really dramatic. Apple has been in a different business cycle for some time and that is just the reality of it. As long as the public is willing to pay a higher price for it’s product and the company can maintain this, there is nothing dull here.

However, the tech sector isn’t the only aspect to blame for the sell-off in the equity markets because it was the speech of the Fed president which also made investors a little cautious. During his speech yesterday, he dropped hint for another interest rate hike during next month. The Fed President literally turned a blind eye to the recent spike in the volatility. In fact, the Fed President played down the recent spike in the volatility.

Theresa May; the British Prime Minister was able to pull a miracle. She was able to secure a backing (for now) from her Cabinet last night, however she will be fighting for her political life. The coordinated plot to oust May as the prime minister of the country is taking place and the coming days will be the toughest days of her political career. But the silver lining among all of this is that at least business and finance leaders have some sort of idea which defines boundaries under which they are can work with. Of course, that is only true if May's agreed plan remains alive.

What she has achieved wasn’t an easy one, the prime minister had to fight for two years and battle with the EU block’ 27 members. The current nature of the Brexit deal is fragile and this is keeping the investors somewhat confused because if May is pushed out of the office then most likely the outcome will be no Brexit or leaving the EU without any deal, which will be no short of a catastrophe for the UK's economy.

In terms of economic data, we have the UK retails sales number due this morning and we expect the numbers show a little improvement. The forecast is for 0.2% vs the previous reading of -0.85. Later in the day, we have the U.S core retail number followed by another speech by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The dollar index is little changed on Thursday (+0.07%), after posting some modest losses in the previous session. The British pound traded in a particularly volatile manner amid Brexit headlines, with the UK Cabinet giving its endorsement to the Brexit deal. Meanwhile, the aussie is the best performing currency among the majors today, following upbeat employment data out of Australia overnight.

STOCKS: US markets remained under selling pressure on Wednesday, with financials underperforming after Maxine Waters – a prominent House Democrat – made it clear her party will halt all efforts to deregulate the financial sector. The S&P 500 (-0.76%), the Dow Jones (-0.81%), and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.90%) all fell, with tech also being a source of weakness, as heavyweights like Apple (-2.82%) continued their recent downtrend. In Asia, Japanese indices declined marginally on Thursday, though the Hang Seng in Hong Kong advanced (+1.75%). In Europe, futures tracking all the major benchmarks were a sea of green today, pointing to a higher open.

COMMODITIES: Oil rebounded on Wednesday and is relatively flat today, licking its wounds after a dramatic collapse in recent weeks. One of the factors helping prices to stabilize was probably growing speculation that OPEC will take action to support prices by cutting its supply before long. Some profit-taking on previous short bets by speculators may have helped too, given the magnitude of the decline. In precious metals, gold prices surged yesterday, capitalizing mainly on some weakness in the US dollar. The precious metal is currently trading at $1,213 per ounce, after bouncing off the $1,200 support handle and a short-term uptrend line drawn from the lows of August 16 yesterday.

Major movers: Pound remains volatile amid Brexit updates; aussie bounces

The Brexit saga continues, with the British pound trading in an extremely volatile manner within a wide range amid conflicting headlines yesterday, to end the session little changed even though PM May secured the backing of her Cabinet for the deal. Reports that several lawmakers from within her own party were moving towards a motion of no-confidence likely kept a lid on optimism. Uncertainty is currently riding high, something echoed by the jittery moves in sterling, as the PM may have to simultaneously stave off a Tory rebellion and push the deal through Parliament; a herculean task in itself considering the number of MPs threatening to vote it down.

The 585-page Brexit draft agreement has been made public and lawmakers are currently scrutinizing it, before Theresa May takes the podium in Parliament later today to answer their questions on the specifics of the deal. Hence, the upcoming sessions may continue to be marked by choppy and directionless price action in sterling, albeit with large swings in magnitude, as the parliamentary debate rages on.

Surprisingly, the kiwi was the best performer out of the major currencies on Wednesday in spite of the broader risk averse environment, which saw US stocks close lower and gold attracting inflows. Meanwhile, the aussie is outperforming today, in the wake of stronger-than-consensus employment data out of Australia overnight. Coming on top of the modest acceleration in wages, the sustained progress in the labor market may have fueled speculation for a more upbeat tone by the RBA going forward.

As for the dollar, it barely reacted to the US CPIs for October yesterday, which were a touch softer than expected. Some remarks by Fed Chair Powell overnight proved equally uneventful for the greenback, given the absence of fresh policy signals. The dollar index retreated marginally yesterday, pressured mostly by the euro recovering some poise on the back of Brexit headlines – even despite a contraction in German GDP for Q3 and continued uncertainty around Italy.

Day ahead: US and UK retail sales coming up; Brexit again in focus

Retail sales out of the US and the UK are dominating attention out of Thursday’s economic calendar. Beyond releases, Brexit developments are again in the forefront.

At 0930 GMT, UK retail sales for October will be made public. Month-on-month, sales are anticipated to record positive growth after contracting in September, something which would allow the annual pace of growth in sales to remain at September’s 3.0%. Core retail sales that exclude fuel from their calculations are projected to rise by 3.3% y/y, slightly faster than the previous 3.2%.

A beat in the numbers may provide a short-term boost to sterling pairs, and vice versa; retail sales are used as somewhat of a proxy for consumption, which makes up a large fraction of the UK economy. However, again the dominant force driving the pound will be developments on the Brexit front. Now that PM May has won her cabinet’s approval on her Brexit plan, the next big hurdle for her is to pass it from parliament.

The US will also be on the receiving end of retail sales data for October. Both headline and core retail sales that exclude automobiles are seen rising by 0.5% m/m, these constituting an acceleration relative to the previous month. Retail control though that is used for GDP calculations is seen expanding by 0.4% m/m, slightly below September’s 0.5%. Earlier reported strong auto sales and wage growth figures may hint to upside potential in the numbers, to the extent these are not already reflected in the forecasts that is.

Weekly jobless claims and monthly releases on business inventories, the New York Fed’s manufacturing index, the Philly Fed’s business index, import and export prices are also due out of the world’s largest economy on Thursday, though these do not tend to act as major market movers, at least not for FX markets.

Fed chief Powell will be participating in a listening session at 1430 GMT, with FOMC policymakers Quarles (permanent FOMC voting member – 1500 GMT), Bostic (voter in 2018 – 1800 GMT) and Kashkari (non-voter in 2018 – 2000 GMT) making public appearances as well. The ECB’s Coeure (1215 GMT) and Praet (1310 GMT), and the BoE’s Tenreyro (1300 GMT) are also on the agenda. Elsewhere, the BoE’s “2nd Conference on Forecasting at Central Banks” commences today and will conclude on Friday.

In energy markets, EIA numbers on US crude stocks due at 1530 GMT are projected to show an inventory buildup of around 3.2 million barrels during the week ending November 9, marking the eighth straight weekly increase, following a rise by roughly 5.8m in the previously tracked week.

Technical Analysis: USDJPY short-term momentum turns negative

USDJPY lost ground after rising to a six-week high of 114.20 on Monday, eventually touching an eight-day low on Wednesday. The negatively aligned Tenkan- and Kijun-sen lines and the declining RSI are pointing to a shift in momentum to the downside.

A US retail sales beat is expected to see the pair rising. A decisive move above the 50-period moving average line at 113.63 – the area around this captures the Ichimoku cloud top (113.57), the Tenkan- (113.65) and Kijun-sen (113.75) lines and a recent top at 113.81 – could see USDJPY meeting resistance around Monday’s high of 114.20. Not far above, another hurdle may come around 114.54, the pair’s highest since 114.54.

On the downside and in the event of disappointing figures, support could come around yesterday’s eight-day trough of 113.29. Not far below lies the 100-period MA at 113.11 (the Ichimoku cloud bottom roughly coincides with this point), with the zone around it encapsulating a bottom (112.94) and a top (112.88) from previous weeks. Lower still, the zone around the 112.55 low would increasingly come within scope.

Safe have flows – or the lack thereof – can also move the pair

Pivot (invalidation): 55.50

Our preference Long positions above 55.50 with targets at 56.50 & 57.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 55.50 look for further downside with 54.75 & 53.95 as targets.

Comment The next resistances are at 56.50 and then at 57.35.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.0000

Our preference Long positions above 14.0000 with targets at 14.2100 & 14.3200 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.0000 look for further downside with 13.9400 & 13.8700 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.