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Bitcoin is trading within uptrend channel, approaching hourly resistance at 12130 (18/01/2018 high) and distancing hourly support at 9022 (30/11/2017 low). The short-term technical structure suggests further upward moves.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth but also presented important downturns. There is decent likelihood that the currency could stabilize between 7'000 - 12'000 in 2018. Bitcoin is trading above its 200 DMA (7000 range).

EUR/CHF bullish momentum starts, the pair exits uptrend channel, approaching hourly resistance at 1.162 (07/02/2018 high). Hourly support is maintained at 1.1471 (09/02/2018 low). The technical structure suggests short-term increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Support can be found at 1.0234 (20/04/2015 low).

EUR/GBP bounced back at the 0.8930 range and starts a bearish phase, approaching hourly support at 0.8883 (13/11/2017 low). Hourly resistance at 0.8982 (28/11/2017 high) is distanced. The short-term technical structure suggests further downward moves.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low). The pair is trading above its 200 DMA.

AUD/USD is decreasing back after a slight recovery above 0.7790, approaching hourly support at 0.7704 (24/12/2017 low). Stronger support is given at 0.7638 (15/12/2018 low) while hourly resistance at 0.7879 (21/02/2018 high) is maintained. The technical structure suggests continued short-term downward moves.

In the long-term, the upward trend slows down after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD continues its rise, breaking hourly resistance at1.2917 (27/10/2018 high) and approaching new hourly resistance at 1.3015 (05/07/2017 high). Hourly support at 1.2668 (26/02/2018 low) is distanced. The technical structure indicates that continued rise is expected in the short-term.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading above its 200 DMA.

USD/CHF is bouncing back following a recent sideways trading phase along the 0.9360 range. The pair currently trades between hourly support and resistance at 0.9296 (05/02/2018 low) and 0.9520 (24/01/2018 high). The pair approaches the 0.95 range. The technical structure suggests short-term rise.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY maintains its recovery phase, currently trading above 106 and slowly approaching hourly resistance at 107.27 (25/02/2018 high). The bearish pattern started in January 2018 is however maintained. Hourly support is given at 106.35 (16/02/2018 high). The short-term technical structure suggests further short-term increase.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.55 (03/05/2016) is now reached while further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low) is maintained. A gradual rise toward the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low).

GBP/USD is weakening back after reaching 1.3877 and starts distancing hourly resistance at 1.3945 (19/01/2018 high). The upward trend of November 2017 starts weakening. Hourly support is given 1.3678 (12/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests short-term decrease.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. Long-term support and resistance are given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high).

EUR/USD recovered from 1.2155 low, stabilized at the1.2340 range. The pair is currently contained between hourly support and resistance at 1.2112 (12/01/2018 low) and 1.2434 (06/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further sideway moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

Smoke clears – smoke ahead

Markets have settled after Monday’s excitement about Germany’s coalition, Italian populists’ victory and US President Trump’s presumed trade war. The VIX volatility index fell to 18 from 26. So here come the next events: China’s National People’s Congress started on 5 March, the European Central Bank meets on 8 March, Italy’s coalition talks have started and US non-farm employment data for February will report on Friday the 9th.

Italy is headed for a hung parliament. We could see unwinding of prior reforms, but probably not a strong enough bloc to pass structural reforms. EUR/USD options are biased toward the downside. The Bank of Japan says it will not abandon negative interest rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak publicly today: her comments could indicate a hawkish bias, which would give the USD a limited bump.

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy unchanged

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates this morning at 1.50%, unchanged since August 2016, and the 17th meeting at this level. Weak economic data suggest no interest hikes in 2018. Unemployment is approaching a full-employment minimum of 5.0%, yet wage growth is low and neutralized by inflation. December’s trade balance drastically decreased, from close-to-zero to AUD -1’358 billion, its worst performance since October 2016. Equities were heading higher, the S&P/ASX 200 up 1.14% at 5’962 while Australian 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields remain at 2% and 2.82%.