Sample Category Title

Notes/Observations

Major European PMI data continued to move off record highs reached back in Dec (Misses: France, Germany and Euro Zone)

UK jobless rate rises unexpectedly, wage growth steady

Asia:

Japan Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 v 54.8 prior; new export orders slow on rising JPY currency (Yen)

Japan Currency Head Asakawa reiterated yen moves are one sided. Did not see need for major change from G20 agreement to refrain from currency devaluation. Noted that surging US Treasury yields as beginning of a sea change and that going forward the US economy will probably be robust and interest rates will rise

Japan PM Abe seeking more stimulus to support economy beyond Olympics, he raised thetopic at a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy

Europe:

Over 60 Members of Parliament send Brexit suggestions to PM May believing that UK should be free to negotiate and sign trade deals with other countries as soon as it left and wanted "full regulatory autonomy" for the UK after March 2019

Sweden Central Bank Dep Gov Floden stated that inflation and inflation expectations have trended upward. Reiterated Riksbank will likely raise rates in H2 2018

Americas:

EU and Mexican negotiators said to have agreed on five new chapters and made important progress on others during its 9th round of trade talks

Economic Data:

(NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Confidence: 23 v 24 prior

(NL) Netherlands Dec Consumer Spending Y/Y: 1.2% v 2.5% prior

(NL) Netherlands Jan House Price Index M/M: 1.5% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.8% v 8.2% prior

(NO) Norway Dec AKU Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.1%e

(FR) France Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 56.1 v 58.0e (17th month of expansion), Services PMI: 57.9 v 59.0e, Composite PMI: 57.8 v 59.2e

(ZA) South Africa Jan CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.4%e

(ZA) South Africa Jan CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.2%e

(CH) Swiss Jan Money Supply Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.6% prior

(DE) Germany Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 60.3 v 60.5e, Services PMI: 55.3 v 57.0e, Composite PMI: 57.4 v 58.5e

(EU) Euro Zone Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 58.5 v 59.2e, Services PMI: 56.7 v 57.6e, Composite PMI: 57.5 v 58.4e

(UK) Dec Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e; Weekly Earnings (ex Bonus) 3M/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e

(UK) Jan Jobless Claims Change: -7.2K v +8.6K prior; Claimant Count Rate: 2.3% v 2.4% prior

(UK) Dec ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.3%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +88K v +165Ke

(UK) Jan Public Finances (PSNCR): -£26.4B v +£25.3B prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -£11.6B v -£11.4Be; Central Govt NCR: -£27.3B v +£18.8B prior; PSNB (ex-banking groups): -£10.0B v -£9.5Be

Fixed Income Issuance:

(IN) India sold total INR140B vs. INR140B indicated in 3-month,6-month and 12-month bills

(DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.12B in 2020 and 2027 DGB Bonds

(SE) Sweden sold SEK500M vs. SEK500M indicated in 2.25% 2032 bonds; Avg Yield: 1.184% v 1.1017% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.69x v 2.26x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.6 at 378.4, FTSE -0.2% at 7236, DAX -0.6% at 12416, CAC-40 -0.4% at 5269 , IBEX-35 -1.0% at 9798, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 22477 , SMI -0.6% at 8927, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade lower across the board following on from the weakness on Wallstreet overnight as Walmart dropped 10% following earnings. US futures have been mixed this morning ahead of another raft of earnings. In the banking sector Lloyds posted strong Q4 results, with Wolter Kluwer, Orange and Glencore also trading higher after earnings. Atos trades lower after disappointing margin outlook, while First Group trades sharply lower after its trading update. Elsewhere Temenos agreed terms to acquire Fidessa and AA trades sharply lower following its new business strategy. Looking ahead notable earners include Dish Network, Advanced Auto Parts, Southern Company and Delphi Automotive.

Movers

Consumer Discretionary [First Group [FGP.UK] -10.5% (Trading update), Wolter Kluwer [WKL.NL] +3.20% (Earnings)]

Materials [ Glencore [GLEN.UK] +4.1% (Earnings)] -Technology [Atos [ATO.R] -3.7% (Earnings)]

Telecom [ Orange [ORA.FR] +1.1% (Earnings), O2 Deutschland [O2D.DE] +0.5% (Earnings)]

Financial [ Lloyds [LLOY.UK] +1.4% (Earnings), Fidessa [FDSA.UK] +3.1% (To be acquired), Deutche Boerse [DB1.DE] +1.6% (Earnings), AA Plc [AA.UK] -20% (Strategy update)]

Speakers

Spain PM Rajoy: Still seeking support for 2018 budget and sought to get the budget bill passed in July

UK Brexit Transition draft: In broad agreement with EU on transition period; sought end-date of transition

Italy Econ Min Padoan: Should not take for granted that next ECB president will be Germany's Weidmann

Eurogroup chief Centeno: Region growth should be sustained in coming years

Sweden Debt Office updated itsborrowing forecasts which cut the nominal bond issuance for both 2018 and 2019. It noted that a larger budget surplus led to lower bond issuance but added that a further reduction was not appropriate since it would risk worsening market liquidity so much that investors might leave the mark

Russia Deputy Foreign Min Ryabkov: Could respond to possible new sanctions by the US

Japan Cabinet Office (Gov’t) Monthly Economic Report for February: Maintained its overall assessment that the domestic economy was recovering at a moderate pace

Brazil Fin Min Meirelles said to question a Senate proposal that would introduce a duel mandate for the central bank

Currencies

USD maintained its recent strength aided by rising bond yields. Dealers noted that the US 2-year results saw the highest yield in almost a decade with good demand.

EUR/USD was softer for the 4th straight session at 1.2320

GBP/USD moved lower as UK jobless rate rose unexpectedly while wage growth was steady. Pair was off by 0.4% at 1.3935 just ahead of the NY morning.

USD/JPY was higher by 0.2% but off the late Asian session highs of 107.70. Japanese officials touting the higher US yields as beginning of a sea change for the currency (aka weaker yen)

Fixed Income

Bund Futures trades up 41 ticks at 158.79 as Bunds remain in recovery mode. Upside targets159.25, while a return lower targets the157.75 level.

Gilt futures trade at 121.82 up 50 ticks after the UK labor report shows no sign of improvement and wages pick up. Support continues to stand at 120.75 then 120.15, with upside resistance at 121.75 then 122.25.

Tuesday's liquidity report showed Monday's excess liquidity fell to €1.835T from €1.854T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €76M from €47M prior.

Corporate issuance saw 3 issuers raise $2.4B in the primary market

Looking Ahead

(CO) Colombia Jan Industrial Confidence: No est v -4.8 prior; Retail Confidence: No est v 21.4 prior

05:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank ( Riksbank) Jansson speech

05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell Bills

06:00 (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB45.9B in 2021 and 2028 OFZ Bonds

06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2026 and 2029 Bonds

06:30 (ZA) South Africa Fin Min Gagaba budget speech

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 16th: No est v -4.1% prior

07:45 (US) Weekly Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales

09:00 (US) Fed’s Hawker (non-voter, moderate) on Economic Outlook

09:00 (NG) Nigeria to sell combined NGN100B in 2021 and 2028 Bonds

09:15 (UK) BOE Gov Carney with members Broadbent, Haldane and Tenreyro

09:45 (US) Feb Preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.5e v 55.0 prior, Services PMI: 54.0e v 53.3 prior, Composite PMI: No est v 53.8 prior

10:00 (US) Jan Existing Home Sales: 5.60Me v 5.57M prior

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening

12:00 (SE) Sweden Central bank ( Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson (hawk) speech in Frankfurt

12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-Year Bonds

13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes

14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Trade Balance: -$0.6Be v -$0.9B prior

14:00 (US) FOMC Minutes from the Jan 31st meeting

16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories

Crude oil upward trend weakens after reaching 62.74 (20/02/2018 high). Crude oil is contained between resistance at 63.67 (10/01/2018) and support at 58.07 (09/02/2018 low). The technical structure suggests short-term downside moves.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness is very likely. For the time being, the pair lies in an upside trend since June 2017. Support lies at 42.20 (16/11/2016) while resistance is located at 77.83 (20/11/2014). Crude oil is trading largely above its 200 DMA.

Silver is stabilizing at the range of 16.50, trading close to hourly support at 16.27 (07/02/2018 low). Hourly resistance remains at 16.98 (15/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term consolidation.

In the long-term, the trend remains negative/ sideways. Further downside is very likely. The pair is trading below its 200 DMA. Resistance is located at 21.58 (10/07/2014 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold is trading further down, approaching hourly support at 1306 (04/01/2018 low). Hourly resistance at 1366 (25/01/2018 high) is maintained. The technical structure suggests further downside moves.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1'392 (17/03/2014) is required to confirm it. A major support can be found at 1'045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin upward trend resumes following slight decrease at 10676 (21/02/2018 low), heading for hourly resistance at 12130 (18/01/2018 high). Strong support remains at 9022 (30/11/2017 low). The short-term technical structure suggests further upside moves.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth but also presented important downturns. There is decent likelihood that the currency could stabilize between 7'000 - 12'000 in 2018. Bitcoin is trading above its 200 DMA (6'500 range).

EUR/CHF is increasing following recent consolidation, trading between hourly resistance and support at 1.162 (07/02/2018 high) and 1.1487 (12/92/2918 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Support can be found at 1.0234 (20/04/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is bouncing back from 0.8806 (21/02/2018 low) following strong overnight selling pressures, approaching hourly resistance at 0.8846 (12/12/2017 high). Hourly resistance remains at 0.8774 (11/12/2017 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. The pair is trading below its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low).

AUD/USD is trading lower following recent stabilization, heading for further decrease along hourly support given at 0.7773 (14/02/2018 low). Hourly resistance is maintained at 0.7999 (17/01/2018 high).

In the long-term, the upward trend resumes after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD keeps increasing, recovering from December downward trend. The pair is approaching hourly resistance at 1.2716 (04/12/2018 high) and distancing support at 1.2466 (15/02/2018 low). The technical structure indicates that continued rise is expected in the short-term.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below its 200 DMA.

USD/CHF ended its short-term downward trend, heading for further rise along 0.94. Hourly resistance stands at 0.9470 (08/02/2018 high) while hourly support remains at 0.9188 (16/02/2018 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.