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In accordance with expectations, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined support set up by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. The better that expected US data release together with the remarks made by Mario Draghi in Frankfurt only supported the yesterday's surge. Today the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top. First, it has no barriers on its way except for the supposed upper edge of a junior descending channel. Second, it experiences pressure from a number of moving averages as well as the weekly PP, which from resistance turned into support. Third, at 8:00 GMT the ECB President is going to speak at Trinity College, which is likely to give additional stimulus to the Euro.

Although the pair managed to break through a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs yesterday, the surge was stopped a little bit below the 1.3600 mark, thus confirming an existence of a strong barrier in that area. It appears that during this whole trading week movement of the exchange rate was guided by some sort of rectangle pattern whose resistance line was located near the 1.3600 level and the support line near the 1.3475 level. On the one hand, there is a high chance that the pair will spend the rest of the day in this established formation, as it faces no significant pressure from technical indicators. On the other hand, a speech that will be delivered by PM May about post-Brexit relations with the EU is likely to have a notable impact on the value of Pound.

In result of combination of technical factors and fundamental events, the currency pair made a turn around a broke though the bottom boundary of a previously dominant ascending channel. From technical point of view, the rate encountered a resistance level formed by the monthly R2 at 112.54 and the upper boundary of a long-term falling wedge. From fundamental perspective, the new threat from North Korea only accelerated depreciation of the buck.

In the short run the currency rate might try to restore some lost positions, using the 100-hour SMAs or the monthly R1, as a springboard. But, in general perspective, the pair is expected to enter into a new long bearish phase.

A suggestion expressed yesterday was basically confirmed. The yellow metal indeed continued to lose value against the buck. The only exception was that it made a rebound not from the weekly S3 but a little bit earlier from the bottom trend-line of a senior descending channel.

However, a recovery of the gold is not expected to last for long today. Most probably, the pair is going to make another turn around somewhere between the 1,300.00 and 1,302.35 levels, as this area represents a location of multiple technical indicators, such as the monthly PP, weekly S2 and the 55-hour SMA. An aggregate of those indicators supports this assumption via sending strong sell signal.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1968

The rebound after 1.1860 low is still intact and my outlook is bullish, for a break through 1.2030, towards 1.2090 peak, en route to 1.2240 zone.

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.96

The test at 112.80 resistance has failed and the bias is already bearish, for a slide to 111.10, en route to 109.30. Minor intraday resistance lies at 112.15.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3587

The intraday outlook is positive above 1.3520, for a break through 1.3635 resistance area, towards 1.3830. Crucial on the downside is 1.3440 static support.

The USDJPY pair has surrendered much of Wednesday's strong gains, after North Korea threatened to detonate its most powerful Hydrogen bomb yet, into the Pacific Ocean. Investors have moved back into the safety of Japanese Yen, and away from riskier asset classes.

During the Asian session, the pair has fallen from the 112.55 level, finding critical intraday support from its monthly pivot point, located at 111.65.

Traders should watch the 110.67 level, which denotes the pairs inverse head and shoulder pattern neckline. A series of higher time frame price closes beneath this level, should be seen as strongly bearish.

Key USDJPY technical support below the 111.65 level is found at 111.57, 111.49 and 111.20. Below 111.20, price should further decline to 110.87 and 110.68.

To the upside, intraday USDJPY resistance is found at 111.90 and pairs the 50-hour moving average, at 112.07. Further resistance above 112.07 is found at the daily pivot point, at 112.42 and the current weekly price-high, at 112.71

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The EURUSD pair is turning increasingly bullish ahead of the weekend's Federal election in Germany. Yesterday, the euro regained bullish momentum after Wednesday's steep decline, reversing sharply from its monthly pivot point, at 1.1884, hitting 1.1964.

In early Asian trading, the pair found dip buying demand as it moved back towards its weekly pivot point, at 1.1938, with price-action now testing the key 1.1957 resistance level.

The euro faces a major risk-event over the weekend, if the German election result is closer than most analysts predict. A larger than expected majority win by Angel Merkel should be euro supportive on Monday, whilst a closer than expected result should be seen as euro negative.

Key intraday resistance for the EURUSD above the 1.1957 level is seen at 1.1980 and 1.1999. Further resistance is located at 1.2031, 1.2038 and 1.2069.

To the downside, the weekly pivot point is found at 1.1938, whilst the daily pivot point is found at 1.1928.

Below the daily pivot point, yesterday's break-out resistance area becomes support, at 1.1915, with the 1.1884 level once again acts as critical support.

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The financial calendar is in full swing on Friday, with a deluge of economic data and monetary policy developments scheduled to come our way.

Action begins at 6:45 GMT when France releases revised second-quarter GDP. The French economy is projected to grow 0.5% between April and June.

PMI data courtesy of IHS Markit will dominate the headlines between 07:00 GMT and 08:00 GMT. Manufacturing, services and composite indicators will be released for Germany, France and the 19-member Eurozone.

Germany’s composite PMI is projected to edge up slightly to 55.9 in September, from 55.8 the previous month. The Eurozone composite indicator likely edged down slightly to 55.5 from 55.7.

The North American session also features a spate of economic releases, beginning at 12:30 GMT with Canadian retail sales and consumer inflation. Canada emerged as the G7’s fastest-growing economy in the first half. Analysts expect retail sales to rise again in July. The consumer price index (CPI) is also projected to strengthen for the month of August.

Markit will also release US services, manufacturing composite PMI at 13:45 GMT. Current projections show a slight improvement in manufacturing conditions and a slight drop in the services gauge. Combined, these results are likely to see little change for the composite indicator.

On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is expected to deliver a speech on Friday. British Prime Minister Theresa May is also slated to speak.

EUR/USD

The euro recovered lost ground on Friday after a hawkish Federal Reserve drove the US dollar to weekly highs against a basket of its peers. The EUR/USD exchange rate climbed back toward the mid-1.19 region on Thursday, and was last up 0.1% at 1.1955. The pair continues to eye the 1.20 region in the short term. However, gains north of that level could prove difficult now that investors are pricing in a good probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD

After a volatile mid-week session, cable rebounded Thursday as the greenback lost some of its post-Fed zeal. The GBP/USD exchange rate was last seen trading at 1.3578, a region it has become familiar with over the past week. Cable has strong support at the key 1.3500 psychological mark. On the opposite side of the leger, 1.3600 is the immediate resistance test, followed by 1.3660

GOLD

A weaker dollar helped stem gold’s multiweek retreat on Thursday, as bullion climbed back toward $1,300.00 a troy ounce. Prices are down more than $50 over the past two weeks. The spot exchange rate (XAU/USD) was last seen trading at $1,297.00 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That represents a gain of 0.4%.

The EUR/USD fluctuated between the 1.1898 and 1.1917 marks to decrease slightly, following the US Jobless Claims report. The fall was easily offset by the bullish market reaction on the Mr. Draghi speech, where the Euro added 17 base points or 0.14% and continued gradual increase to the intraday high of 1.1947.

The US Labour Department stated that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly to 259K last week, suggesting that the hurricanes-related increase continued to reverse. The next move in the pair was set by the ECB President Mario Draghi comments on the banking sector risks, while avoiding to provide any hints on the Bank's monetary policy changes decision.

The USD/JPY exchange rate was little changed after the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision announcement. However, the further reaction on the Bank's press conference put the pair to a two-month high of 112.70, where the US Dollar strengthened against the Yen by more than 0.15%. Both events managed to keep USD/JPY above the 112.0 level, though the pair returned to the 111.80 area in the early Friday trading session.

The Bank of Japan left the key interest rate at negative 0.1%, as expected, keeping its accommodative monetary policy on the table in an attempt to achieve 2% inflation target without additional stimulus. Meanwhile, the Greenback's position was determined by speculation over bets that the Fed would raise rates in December.