Dollar strengthens mildly today ahead of US president-elect Donald Trump's first post election press conference. Nonetheless, the strength is mainly seen against European majors. The dip in EUR/USD sent the dollar index above 102.50 briefly but there is no follow through buying in the greenback yet. US stock index futures also point to a flat open. The press conference will be held at 11am eastern time today and no specific topic was announced. Nonetheless, markets will be eagerly looking for details of Trump's expansive fiscal plans; The so called "Trump Rally" in stocks, yield and dollar lost much steam since the start of the year and will need fresh stimulus for the next moves.

The World Economic Forum noted some of the most significant global risks for this year, in a report surveyed 750 experts. Dani Rodrik, proposed a theory of globalization "Trilemma" in which only two of democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration could be simultaneously compatible And recent developments indicated that democracy and national sovereignty are the priorities. Meanwhile, the rise of populism, Brexit and Donald Trump's win post geopolitical risks. And, there could be step back from 2016's development including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Altlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

On the data front, UK industrial production rose 2.1% mom, 1.3% yoy in November, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 0.6% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 1.3% mom, 1.2% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% mom, 0.4% yoy. Construction output dropped -0.2% mom in November. Trade deficit widened to GBP -12.2b in November. From Japan, leading index rose to 102.7 in November.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0604; More.....

EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 1.0339/0652. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0604; More.....

EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 1.0339/0652. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.23; (P) 140.84; (R1) 141.51; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 148.42 short term top is in progress. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 138.46. As note before, rise from 122.36 is seen as a corrective move. Sustained trading below 138.46 and downside acceleration will indicate that such correction is finished too. And in that case, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 132.31 and below. On the upside, break of 145.38 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 148.42. Otherwise, near term outlook stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Price actions from there are expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.86; (P) 122.40; (R1) 122.69; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in the consolidation from 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 120.33) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8634; (P) 0.8698; (R1) 0.8733; More...

A temporary top is in place at 0.8764 as EUR/GBP lost momentum. Intraday bias is turned neutral first but another rise is expected as long as 0.8449 holds. Rise from 0.8303 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 0.9304. Above 0.8764 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. We'll expect strong resistance above 0.8922 to limit upside and bring another fall. On the downside, below 0.8449 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8303 first. Break there will extend the whole fall from 0.9304. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at around 0.8116.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8243) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4281; (P) 1.4354; (R1) 1.4391; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.4721 resumed by taking out 1.4322. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.4072. Break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.On the upside, above 1.4467 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0717; (P) 1.0732; (R1) 1.0745; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in the consolidation pattern from 1.0677 and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1198 are seen a corrective pattern that is still unfolding. Below 1.0677 will target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3195; (P) 1.3225; (R1) 1.3260; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 1.3176. Another decline is expected as long as 1.3330 minor resistance holds. Below 1.3176 will target 1.3080 key support level. Decisive break there will confirm completion of whole corrective rise from 1.2460 and turn outlook bearish. However, above 1.3330 minor resistance will turn focus back on 1.3588/98 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is possibly finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7339; (P) 0.7361; (R1) 0.7392; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7158 extends. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7394 holds, which is close to the falling 55 day EMA, outlook stays cautiously bearish. Below 0.7287 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Firm break of 0.7144 will confirm our bearish view that corrective pattern from 0.6826 has completed and larger down trend is resuming for another low. Though, sustained trading above 0.7394 will turn focus back to 0.7777/7833 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.9504 to 0.6826 from 0.7777 at 0.6122 next. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2185; (R1) 1.2246; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.2106 and intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2432 resistance and bring another decline. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774 and larger down trend is possibly resuming. This is supported by the rejection from 55 day EMA. Below 1.2106 will target 1.1946 support. Break there will confirm this bearish case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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