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The new Complete Monthly CPI printed softer than we thought presenting downside risk to our December quarter estimates.

• Headline CPI came in softer than Westpac had expected; 0.0% in the month compared to our 0.4% forecast.
• As such, this presents a downside risk to our current December quarter nearcast of 0.6%qtr for the Headline CPI and 0.8%qtr for the Trimmed Mean.
• If this is correct, it should be enough to comfort the RBA that they do not need to lift rates at the February meeting.
• Outside of administered prices, known supply shocks and items that are known to be volatile, we continue to expect the currently inflationary pulse to moderate through 2026.

The new Complete Monthly CPI gained 3.4% in the year to November, softer than Westpac’s estimate of 3.8%yr and the market estimate of 3.6%yr. At face value, this suggests downside risk to our December quarter estimates of 0.8%qtr for the Trimmed Mean (TM) and 0.6% for the CPI. However, we still need to complete a full review of the monthly data to confirm this.

November’s headline figure was flat in the month, softer than Westpac’s published near-cast of 0.4% on the back of a smaller than expected rise in electricity (6.8% vs 16.0% estimated), a larger than expected fall in household contents & services (–0.9% vs –0.2% estimated), clothing & footwear (–3.1% vs. –2.9% estimate) and health (–0.5% vs. 0.0% expected), a smaller than expected rise in transport (0.3% vs. 0.6% forecast) to be partially offset by stronger gains in food (0.4% vs 0.2% estimated), rents (0.4% vs 0.3% estimated), dwellings (0.5% vs 0.4% estimated) and communication (0.4% vs. –0.1% estimated).

As has been the norm for some time, the energy rebates continue to have a significant impact on estimates of consumer price inflation. Electricity costs rose 19.7% in the year to November, held down by households using the Queensland State Government electricity rebate . This is a moderation from the 37.1%yr pace in October 2025 reflecting, as the ABS noted, that more households received catch-up payments of the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) rebate in 2024 compared to 2025.

The ABS estimates that excluding the impact of the Commonwealth and State Government electricity rebates over the past year, electricity prices rose 4.6% in the year to November compared to a 5.0% increase in the year to October. This reflects annual price reviews from energy retailers in July 2025.

The TM measure was reported to have increased 3.2% in the year to November, a slight moderation from the 3.3%yr pace in October. Due to its short history, the annual pace of monthly TM inflation can only be calculated back to April 2025. Before then the ABS noted that annual movements are calculated by comparing each quarter to the same quarter in the previous year.

The TM lifted 0.3% in the month of November, the same monthly increase it has seen for the previous four months and down from the 0.5%mth increase in July but stronger than the 0.2%mth prints from March to June.

While we note that the current annual pace of the Monthly TM, at 3.2%yr, matches our current December quarter TM estimate of 3.2%yr, we do know that the RBA will, at least for the near term, remain focused on the quarterly TM, rather than the Monthly TM. This is because the ABS does not have enough history to complete a full seasonal adjustment process for all the components of the Monthly CPI. The ABS has also noted it will take at least 18 months to gather that data so it is likely to be a year and a half before we will be able to make a more detailed assessment of core inflation directly via the monthly TM. As such, we anticipate the RBA will use the December print to guide their decision. Our expectation is that the Monetary Policy will remain cautious and pause at its next meeting in February and remain on hold for the remainder of the year.

As we have noted, see our November CPI preview, while some series did have a longer monthly history coming from the previously published monthly CPI indicator and the ABS can potentially use historical seasonal analysis we caution that some of the new data sets have a different history to the old data and as such, we expect it is going to take some time to understand the seasonal behaviour of the new data.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3480 and 1.3500.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.3450 on the 4-hour chart.
• USD/JPY is consolidating above the 156.00 pivot level.
• XRP price surged over 20% and climbed above $2.30.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound remained supported for more gains against the US Dollar. GBP/USD climbed above 1.3450 to start another increase.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3450, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even spiked above 1.3550 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed at 1.3567, and the pair is now correcting some gains. On the downside, immediate support is near the 1.3490 level. The first major area for the bulls might be near 1.3450 and a bullish trend line.

The 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) is also near 1.3450. A close below 1.3450 might spark heavy bearish moves. The next support could be 1.3420, below which the bears might aim for a move toward 1.3350.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.3550. The first key hurdle is seen near 1.3565. A close above 1.3565 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3620. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.3650.

Looking at XPR, the bulls took control and pushed the price above many key hurdles such as $2.20, $2.30, and $2.35.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US ISM Services PMI for Dec 2025 – Forecast 52.3, versus 52.6 previous.
• US ADP Employment Change for Dec 2025 - Forecast 45K, versus -32K previous.

The DAX continues to advance to new highs, confirming that the right side of the market remains bullish. The decline from the November 21, 2025 low at 22,943 marked the end of wave (2). From that level, the Index began a rally in wave (3), unfolding with clear internal subdivisions consistent with an impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((i)) concluded at 23,392.2, followed by a pullback in wave ((ii)) that ended at 23,139.27. The Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) toward 23,883.98. A corrective dip in wave ((iv)) found support at 23,433.48. The final leg, wave ((v)), carried prices to 24,474.62, completing wave 1 of a higher degree sequence.

After this advance, the Index corrected in wave 2, which unfolded as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) ended at 24,173.28, wave ((b)) at 24,318.3, and wave ((c)) at 23,923.97. This completed wave 2 and set the stage for renewed strength. The market has since resumed higher in wave 3 of (3). The potential upside target is projected at the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave 1, spanning 25,450 to 26,403. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 22,943.3 remains intact, pullbacks should find support within the typical three, seven, or eleven swing corrective structures, paving the way for further gains.

DAX 60 minute chart from 01.07.2026 update

DAX Elliott Wave video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CFhDpWNchk

Key takeaways

Near-term bias turning bearish: Gold is struggling below the US$4,485–4,500 resistance zone, with price action signalling a potential short-term bearish reversal over the next 1–3 days.

Momentum and retracement warning signs: The recent rebound has reached a key Fibonacci retracement and is accompanied by bearish RSI divergence, suggesting the move is likely a countertrend bounce rather than a fresh bullish impulse.

Key levels to watch: A break below US$4,430/4,403 opens the door to deeper pullbacks toward US$4,333–4,309 and potentially US$4,267–4,243, while a clear break above US$4,500 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bearish reversal

Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$4,485/4,500 for a potential minor bearish reversal in the first step for Gold (XAU/USD).

A break below US$4,430/4,403 may expose further weakness towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,333/4,309, followed by the first medium-term support zone of US$4,267/4,243 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025 low).

Key elements to support the bearish bias

• The minor up moves of 5.3% from the 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 to today’s 7 January 2025 intraday high of US$4,500 have reached 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior corrective decline from its current all-time high printed on 26 December 2025 to 31 December 2025.
• The rally since Monday, January 5, 2025, has been accompanied by a bearish divergence condition, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which has reached its overbought region.
• These observations suggest that the rally from 31 December 2025 is likely to be a countertrend/mean reversion rebound rather than the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for Gold (XAU/USD).

Alternative trend bias (1 to days)

A clearance above US$4,485/4,500 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish reversal scenario on Gold (XAU/USD) that allows bulls to be in control again,

Above the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560 sees the next intermediate resistance comes in at US$4,645 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel.

For traders returning to their desks after the mid-December break, the Metals complex has been the unmissable story, aggressively grabbing market share in investor portfolios even as volumes thinned out for year-end settlement.

After a relatively calm consolidation period from October to late November, the catalyst for the next leg up arrived via a dovish pivot from NY Fed President Williams.

His comments—early but later warranted by weaker inflation data and downward revisions to US labor numbers—rocked markets and reignited the "Dollar Diversification" trade.

Initially, the rally was driven by rate cut expectations.

The Year-end buying actually pushed prices to what resembled a short-squeeze around all metals as consecutive +5% average gains across the asset class were common theme just ahead of Christmas.

When these narrative paused, geopolitical uncertainty took the baton—and that is exactly where we find ourselves today.

Metals Performance Since September 2025 – Source: TradingView

The latest headline shocker arrived over the weekend with the sneaky (to say the least) capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro.

While a US intervention in Venezuela had been priced in to some extent, the "sci-fi" nature of the execution caught markets off guard.

The real accelerant for the renewed panic demand in metals wasn't the capture itself, but the aftermath.

In post-operation interviews, President Trump renewed threats regarding Greenland, autonomous territory of Denmark (a NATO and EU member).

This has triggered immediate concern regarding sovereign FX reserve diversification – A Major theme during 2025.

Denmark, for instance, holds approximately $90 billion in foreign currency reserves, the majority of which are denominated in US Dollars. With diplomatic tensions rising, it is safe to assume the Danish government—and other nations watching closely—are actively looking for other solution.

This is bringing yet another buying wave in Precious Metals, further driven higher by the influx of money from asset managers at the beginning of the year and confirming the end-of-December price extremes that took Gold, Silver, and Platinum to new all-time highs.

Let's dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) as ongoing buying is catching steam.

A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium

Platinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

It seems that our 2026 Metals Preview was timid in terms of targets looking at the current action.

Having easily breached its 2008 preceding record during the holidays, Platinum kept on extending all the way to $2,500 where traders returning and profit-taking preceded a huge pullback.

Looking at the chart, this is a picture break-retest of 2011 highs and of previous Channel bounds, mentioned in our late-December analysis.

Keep an eye on the RSI – overall, the picture is looking very bullish and strong but buyers will have to exceed preceding highs with even more momentum to avoid the formation of divergences.

For now, they are far from showing up and momentum is strong. I expect to see at least a test of the ATH or higher for Platinum.

Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels

• $2,450 to $2,525 Current All-Time Highs
• Session highs $2,420
• Potential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770
• Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000

Support levels

• $2,200 to $2,300 2008 Momentum Pivot
• 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,950
• 2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750
• $1,620 to $1,650 FOMC Support
• Major High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600

Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver is going ballistic in today's action, up another 6%.

The grey metal is once again caught up into waves of thinner supply and immense demand as beginning-year orders push up demand yet again, particularly with its positive seasonals.

Immediate reactions will be interesting:

• Entering the $82 to $84 all-time High resistance Zone without slowing down (no dojis or red candles) indicates higher chances of a breakout
• Stalling at $84 could point to a double top – The way things have been, even double tops aren't enough to generate strong pullbacks, so this could point to a dip-to-buy
• Failure to breach $82 this week seems unlikely but would be a first sign of weakness for the metal.

With Momentum and Volumes coming back to Market, continuation makes sense so keep an eye on potential new records or what happens if buyers fail to push prices all the way to there.$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance.

On the higher timeframe, watch whether Silver holds its $75 Pivot Zone and upward trendline – $70 is the next support below.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• $81.01 Session Highs
• $82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance
• $87 to $88 Potential Fibonacci Resistance
• $92 Potential Fibonacci Resistance 2

Support Levels:

• $75 to $77 Immediate Bull/Bear Pivot
• Psychological Support, Higher Timeframe Pivot $70 to $72
• Support $65 to $67 at Previous All-time Highs

Safe Trades and Happy New Year!

WTI oil rose further on Tuesday, following US action in Venezuela, which caused uncertainty over country’s oil production and boosted demand.

Although it is still early to estimate what consequences will US unprecedented action cause on production in the country which has the biggest oil reserves, markets reacted with caution, assuming potential output disruption.

From the other hand, market observers expect sufficient oil supply in 2026, even without any intervention from OPEC, as production is expected to remain steady, while demand is likely to remain weak as most large economies struggle to accelerate economic growth.

This points to scenario that oil price would remain under pressure (unless big and unexpected changes occur) from supply and demand perspective, but very vulnerable geopolitical situation requires caution.

Technical picture on daily chart shows slight improvement (strengthening positive momentum / 10/20 DMA bull-cross) with pivotal barrier at $58.72 (50% retracement of $62.58/$54.87 descend, reinforced by 55DMA) being attacked again, but so far without firm break.

Repeated failure here, along with pressure from nearby falling thick daily Ichimoku cloud ($59.39/$618.18) would weaken near-term outlook and keep the downside vulnerable, as the price will remain within near-term consolidation range after recovery attempts from 2025 low ($54.87) have been repeatedly rejected.

However, near-term structure is expected to remain slightly bullishly aligned while the price holds above $57.82 (10DMA / broken Fibo 38.2%), while drop below $57.55 (20DMA) would risk deeper drop.

Res: 58.80; 59.63; 60.00; 60.48
Sup: 57.82; 57.55; 57.00; 56.69

Cryptocurrencies have been getting whiplashed, with investors noting a stark contrast: despite immense growth in Stock Indexes and Metals, the year-over-year performance for Bitcoin in 2025 was actually negative.

Cross-Asset Market Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView

But this headline carries a significant bias.

First, year-over-year change fails to capture the total volatility and opportunity within the period. Bitcoin, for example, surged from $75,000 to a new record high of $126,000—a 70% rise from trough to peak.

Traders with a solid game plan who capitalized on these swings fared far better than the yearly close suggests.

It is also worth remembering that the crypto pioneer is still up a staggering 480% since its 2023 lows and 123% since 2024, despite finishing 2025 down 3% overall.

In a similar vein, Ethereum experienced high-volatility flows, rallying 250% to reach new all-time highs of $4,950 in August before correcting.

While it closed the year down roughly 3% compared to January 1st, 2025, it remains up 260% from its 2023 lows.

With the implementation of the Fusaka upgrade—enabling significantly cheaper transaction costs and higher efficiency—the second-largest cryptocurrency could see a fundamental "demand floor" that would act as cushion against more downside.

Current Session in Cryptos – January 6, 2026 (10:30). Source: FInviz

Furthermore, Bitcoin wasn't the only game in town. Several altcoins posted remarkable gains in 2025, decoupling from the majors.

• Binance Coin (BNB): Up 40%.
• Monero (XMR): Up 136%.
• ZCash (ZEC): Up a massive 860%.

The most successful traders were those who leveraged these swift gains, cashing out at relative highs before re-entering at the recent lows.

The question now is where things go in 2026. Risk appetite remains stable, so in the absence of violent volatility, regular discounted cash flows into cryptocurrencies make sense at these levels. You can check our

Solana, for instance, could present an interesting alternative, currently trading 50% off its lows.

Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).

A quick Glance at the Crypto Market Cap from 2019 to 2026

Total Crypto Market Cap Weekly Chart, rebounding from its Channel lows – Source: TradingView

Keep an eye on if the rebound on the higher timeframe upward channel triggers further buying from here.

Overall, the Crypto Market remained very resilient at its lower bound.

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is getting back on a bullish momentum but faces a key test at its 50-Day Moving Average, currently at $94,180.

Closing above on the daily would further confirm its breakout beyond its harsh October downtrend. The main Crypto is still not out of its neutral outlook until it breaches the $100,000 level again.

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $88,000 to $93,000 major support turned Pivot
• Current Weekly Lows $89,340
• $85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)
• $75,000 Key long-term support

Resistance Levels:

• $94,170 50-Day MA
• $98,000 to $100,000 Resistance
• $104,000 200-Day MA
• Resistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000
• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000

Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Ether is actually the most bullish-looking crypto out of all major altcoins., also getting a fundamental boost from its recent upgrade.

Having breached the $3,000 key psychological level and holding above, buyers are forming a bull uptrend above the 50 and 200-Day Moving average – Watch how the bullish trendline holds.

Levels of interest for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

• 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages
• $2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (November lows)
• $2,620 Session and weekly Lows
• $2,100 June War support
• $1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support
• 2025 Lows $1,384

Resistance Levels:

• $3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)
• $3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs
• $3,800 September lows
• $4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone
• $4,950 Current new All-time highs

Solana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The rebound in Solana is looking very decent but still faces key hurdles ahead.

With the price action getting bullish from a 3-month consolidation, bulls will want to break above $150 to relaunch bullish prospects and hold the upward trendline.

Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:

Support Levels:

• Main Support $125 to $130
• Weekly lows $123
• $100 to $115 Main support

Resistance Levels:

• $140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)
• Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170
• $180 to $190 Resistance
• Psychological level $200 to $205
• $253 Cycle highs

Safe Trades and Happy New Year!

Markets

Richmond Fed Barkin is the next governor to share his personal view on policy going forward. He doesn’t have a vote on the FOMC board this year. Barkin is watching both sides of the Fed’s mandate with policy now within the range of estimates for neutral. He’s looking forward to first “clean” data in coming weeks as effects from the lengthy government shutdown subside. Barkin’s balanced view align with the ones of Philly Fed Paulson over the weekend. Paulson sees modest further adjustments later this year. Her comments matter more as she rotates into a voting FOMC seat. That regional rotation is a hawkish one this year with Cleveland Fed Hammack (preference to be slightly more restrictive to help continue put pressure on inflation), Dallas Fed Logan (spoke out against December 25 bps rate cut; only willing to cut further if there is clear evidence that inflation will hall faster than expected or the labor market cools more rapidly) and Minneapolis Fed Kashkari (pretty close to neutral right now) filling the other seats. These more hawkish views balance the more dovish board of governors but in the end, the latter will still be able to outvote the former of course if necessary.

Eco data were confined to national European inflation numbers today. Both French and German price increases were weaker than feared in December. French CPI rose by 0.1% M/M (vs 0.2% consensus) and 0.7% Y/Y. Unchanged German prices compared with November pulled the annual figure down more than hoped (2% Y/Y from 2.6% vs 2.2% expected). Spanish inflation, already released at the end of last year, came in in line with forecasts at 0.3% M/M and 3% Y/Y. German Bunds outperformed US Treasuries today with the move starting after first softer regional German CPI prints. German yields fall by 2.5 bps across the curve compared with 1-2 bps increases in the US. The lower inflation print and likely benign inflation (base) effects at the start of the year might bring the more dovish ECB members in the picture with money markets currently being extremely neutral positioned. This makes the front end of the European curve and the euro, ceteris paribus, vulnerable to guarded corrections lower. We nevertheless stick to the view that the current 2% ECB deposit rate will serve as a bottom. EUR/USD today drifted back from 1.1740 to 1.17.

The Kingdom of Belgium today announced its intention to issue a new 10-yr benchmark (OLO 106 June2036) via syndication in the near future, likely tomorrow. It’s the first of three planned new benchmark deals with the debt agency (BDA) also suggesting a new 5-yr OLO and a longer dated one (depending on market conditions) later this year. These syndications should help cover this year’s record €59.55bn gross borrowing requirement (net requirement: €26.37bn). To finance these needs, the BDA mainly relies on long term funding. They look to issue €51.6bn of OLO’s. That’s a significant mark-up (+€5.9bn) compared to last year’s €45.7bn and breaks with four consecutive years of relative stable OLO issuance (€43.2-45.7bn). A quick look at the Belgian redemption profile learns that €50bn+ OLO issuance is here to stay given that we don’t expect a marked improvement in budget deficit dynamics. The next nine years, annual redemptions exceed this year’s €28bn with the exception of more or less matching numbers in 2030 and 2032. Especially 2028 will be a challenging year with a record €38bn outstanding. The BDA could already lift pre-financing next year to prepare for this funding cliff.

News & Views

The Czech Finance Ministry today reported on 2025 central state budget data. The CZK 290.7bn budget deficit was the outcome of CZK 2081.1bn in revenue and CKZ 2371.8bn in expenditure. The result compared to an initial budget deficit target of CZK 241bn and also marks a rise compared to the 2024 deficit at CZK 271.4bn. According to Finance Minister Alena Schillerova, the overshoot in the budget deficit was due to a an underestimation of expenditures on renewable energy sources in the budget of the previous government, an overestimate of revenues from the sale of emission allowances and higher expenditure on education. Aside from the 2025 budget data, the Czech Finance Ministry also published the framework of its 2026 funding and debt management strategy. The report shows refinancing needs for state debt redemptions amounting to CZK 423.6bn. After the approval of the draft State Budget Act of the Czech Republic for 2026, expected later this month, an update will be published. The Ministry of Finance will then quantify the total financing needs including interest expenditures of the state budget in 2026.

US service sector momentum softened at the end of 2025, with Services PMI finalized at 52.5 in December, down from 54.1 in November and the lowest level in eight months. Composite PMI also eased to 52.7 from 54.2, pointing to slower but still expansionary growth as the year closed.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, the resilience of the US economy is showing “signs of cracking.” New business growth at services firms was the weakest in nearly 20 months, while manufacturing orders fell for the first time in a year, signalling "broad-based weakening of demand growth".

The surveys also flagged emerging labor market stress, with companies cutting headcounts outnumbering those hiring for the first time since February. Future output expectations have dropped sharply compared with early 2025, raising concern that December’s slowdown and job market malaise "could spill over into the new year".

At the same time, firms reported rising tariff-related cost pressures, heightening the risk of "slower economic growth and stubbornly high inflation" at the start of the new year.

Full US PMI services final release here.