Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7671; (P) 0.7694; (R1) 0.7725; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as the rise from 0.7490 is extending to as high as 0.7728 so far. As noted before, the whole rally from 0.7158 is likely resuming. Break of 0.7740 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 next. That coincides with key long term retracement level at 0.7849. At this point, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7849/50 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, below 0.7662 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But break of 0.7490 is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

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