Last week’s development suggests that consolidation fro 1.6353 is extending. Though, with 1.5984 support intact, outlook stays bullish and larger up trend is expected to extend later. As the falling leg from 1.6357 should have completed at 1.6048 already, initial bias is back on the upside this week for 1.6357. Firm break there will resume up trend for target 1.6587 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.
