EUR/AUD surged to as high as 1.6262 last week as rise from 1.5683 extended. The decisive break of 1.6122 resistance confirmed that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. While upside momentum as weaken mildly, initial bias stays on the upside this week. Further rally should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, below 1.6127 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
