EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6434 continued last week and reached as high as 1.5356. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.5250 low. Sustained break there will confirm resumption of larger down trend. Next target is 1.4733 long term fibonacci support. On the upside, break of 1.5523 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption nand target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733 will extend the decline to 1.3624 long term support and possibly below.
