EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.4721 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.4138. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Still, as long as 1.4322 support turned resistance holds, deeper fall is mildly in favor to 1.4072 low. Decisive break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. On the upside, above 1.4322 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4467 and above.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.
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