EUR/AUD was still bounded in consolidation from 1.5704 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5298) to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 1.5704 will resume larger rise from 1.4281. However, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper correction towards 1.4965 resistance turned support.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.4281, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise would be seen back to 1.6434 key resistance next. Break of 1.4965 resistance turned support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor.
In the longer term picture, breach of 55 month EMA (now at 1.5597) raises the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Focus is back on 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.7691.
