EUR/AUD’s decline last week suggests that corrective pattern from 1.6800 is still extending. With a temporary low formed at 1.6355, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.6355 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6283. On the upside, firm break of 1.6631 resistance will suggest that the correction has likely completed, and rise from 1.5963 is finally ready to resume.
In the bigger picture, with 1.5996 key support (2024 low) intact, larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6090) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
