EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.8554 extended lower last week and picked up some momentum. The close below 38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.8854 at 1.7750 dampened our original view. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.7410). Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953. On the upside, though, break of 1.7886 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.8554 high.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.9806, which is close to 1.9799 (2020 high). Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6199) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, firm break of the above mention 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).
. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953. On the upside, though, break of 1.7886 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.8554 high.){kind=link}