EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.7380 last week but recovered after hitting 55 D EMA (now at 1.7430). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.7886 resistance will argue that fall from 1.8553 has completed as a correction at 1.7380. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.8554. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953 next.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6199) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, firm break of the above mention 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum will argue that it’s indeed resuming the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low).
. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.7886 resistance will argue that fall from 1.8553 has completed as a correction at 1.7380. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.8554. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will target 61.8% retracement at 1.6953 next.){kind=link}