EUR/AUD’s strong rally last week suggests that corrective pattern from 1.8554 has completed with three waves to 1.7569. Nevertheless, since a temporary top was formed at 0.8160 after first rejection by 1.8155 resistance, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 1.8155 will affirm this bullish case and bring retest of 1.8554 high next. However, break of 1.7818 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.7569 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern, which might have completed already. Firm break of 1.8554 will resume larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low), and target 61.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.8554 from 1.7569 at 1.9170. Nevertheless, break of 1.7569 support will delay the bullish case and extend the correction from 1.8554.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6506) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
