EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.6842 extended lower to 1.6340 last week. But a temporary low should be in place on loss of momentum. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6497 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.6340 will target a retest on 1.6125 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.6497 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7129) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6601) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
