EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.6108 resumed by breaking through 1.6516 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.6186 to 1.6516 from 1.6306 at 1.6636 next. On the downside, below 1.6429 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6306 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6577) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
