EUR/AUD’s extended decline and break of 1.6306 support suggests that rebound from 1.6108 has already completed at 1.6617. Intraday bias is now on the downside for retesting 1.6108 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6419 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
