Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5813; (P) 1.5852; (R1) 1.5879; More….

EUR/AUD’s sharp decline and break of 1.5774 indicates resumption of fall from 1.6139. Intraday bias is back on the downside towards 1.5621 support. For now, price actions from 1.6189 are viewed as a corrective pattern. So strong support would be seen above 1.5621 to bring rebound. But break of 1.5887 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal first. Otherwise, deeper fall is expected even in case of recovery. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.5621 will carry larger bearish implications.

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In the bigger picture, while there is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Current rally from 1.3624 could extend to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nonetheless, we’d expect further loss of upside momentum, and strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, sustained break of 1.5621 support should confirm reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.5153 support and below.


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