EUR/CHF turned into sideway trading last week but recovery was limited by 1.0602 minor resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected. Break of 1.0532 will resume down trend from 1.1149 to 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, however, break of 1.0602 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.0678 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1015) maintains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume the down trend from 1.2004 to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.9650.
