EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF’s down trend resumed last week and fell to as low as 0.9520, just ahead of 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515. A temporary low should be in place with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.9520 will resume the fall from 1.0095 to 0.9407 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying bearish as the pair is capped well below falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9876). Down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Sustained break of 0.9407 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9840 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0459). Break of 1.00095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bottoming, or the multi-decade down trend is expected to continue.

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