EUR/CHF’s rally from 0.9252 resumed by breaking through 0.9847 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance. On the downside, below 0.9835 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9728 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9563 support holds, rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom is still in favor to continue. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
