EUR/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9772 but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9659. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Strong bounce from current level will maintain near term bullishness. Break of 0.9972 will resume the rally from 0.9772. However, firm break of 0.9614 will extend the fall from 0.9772 to 61.8% retracement at 0.9589 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.9252 medium term bottom might not be completed yet. But even in case of resumption, strong resistance could emerge from 1.0095 to limit upside. Medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.0094 structural resistance holds. Meanwhile, break of 0.9476 will bring retest of 0.9252 low.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
