EUR/GBP’s late break of 0.8939 resistance suggests that fall from 0.9098 has completed at 0.8655 already. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 0.9098 first. Sustained break will target 0.9304 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.8876 minor support will mix up near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Sustained break of 0.8939 resistance will confirm that it’s in a medium term rising leg for 0.9098 and above. And for now, in case of another fall, downside will likely be contained by 0.8620/55 support zone to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
