EUR/GBP’s rebound from 0.8338 resumed last week by breaking through 0.8491 resistance. Current development argues that choppy fall from 0.8720 might be completed. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.8338 to 0.8491 from 0.8386 at 0.8539. Firm break there will affirm this bullish case and prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.8634 and above. On the downside, break of 0.8386 will resume the fall from 0.8720 through 0.8338 low instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term bearishness is maintained with prior rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.
In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8591) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.
