EUR/GBP gyrated lower last week as fall from 0.8711 extended, but turned sideway after breaching 0.8636 support briefly. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8683 minor resistance will extend the rebound from 0.8595 through 0.8711 to retest 0.8752 high. However, firm break of 0.8636 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8595 support instead.
In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it’s reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it’s a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8518) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
