EUR/GBP edged higher last week but failed to sustain above 0.8610 support turned resistance. Initial bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. On the downside, break of 0.8551 support will indicate that corrective bounce from 0.8453 has completed, and bring retest of this low first. However, sustained break of 0.8610 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rally towards 0.8728 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8610 support turned resistance hold. However, sustained break of 0.8610 will argue that fall from 0.8863 might have completed as a correction, instead of reversal.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
