EUR/JPY edged lower to 118.46 last week but reversed from there. Break of 121.15 resistance argues that fall from 122.87 has completed with three waves down to 118.46. That in turn argues that larger rise from 115.86 is not finished. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 122.87 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 120.09 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 118.46 instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.

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In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.42), this is the preferred case.

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