EUR/JPY edged lower to 156.16 last week as fall from 166.67 extended, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 162.11) holds. On the downside, below 157.54 minor support will bring retest of 156.16 first. Break there will target 154.40 low next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.55).
 holds. On the downside, below 157.54 minor support will bring retest of 156.16 first. Break there will target 154.40 low next.){kind=link}