EUR/JPY was still bounded in range of 170.94/172.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.7299 will bring retest of 173.87 high. On the downside, break of 170.94 will bring deeper fall to 169.69 support and possibly below. Overall, price actions from 173.87 are seen as a corrective pattern that could still extend.
In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
