EUR/JPY’s rally continued last week. While momentum is relatively unconvincing as seen in 4H MACD, there is no sign of topping. Initial bias stays on the upside for 175.41 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, however, firm break of 173.88 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback to 172.11 support instead.
In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 171.96) will delay this bullish case, bring deeper pullback to 169.69 support first.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
