EUR/JPY edged lower to 176.19 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations. In case of another fall, strong support is expected from 175.26/41 to bring rebound. Considering bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 179.29 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for 181.53 resistance next. However, decisive break of 175.26/41 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Deeper fall cannot be ruled out, towards 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 but strong support is expected there. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.
In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place.
