EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.86; (P) 132.41; (R1) 132.80; More….

The corrective rise from 128.94 is likely completed at 133.08, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 128.95 low. On the upside, above 133.08 will extend such rebound. But even in that case, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and below.

In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.

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