Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1334; (P) 1.1368; (R1) 1.1400; More…..

EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.1270 extends higher today but it’s still bounded in range of 1.1270/1443. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.1443 resistance holds, we’d favor a downside breakout. On the downside, break of 1.1270 will argue that larger fall is resumption should target 1.1251 low next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case. EUR/USD should drop through 1.1186 fibonacci level to 61.8% projection of 1.2555 to 1.1300 from 1.1814 at 1.1038 next. However, firm break of 1.1443 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 1.1814 resistance.

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In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

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