EUR/USD’s break of 1.1422 last week suggests resumption of whole rise from 1.0635. Though, as a temporary top was formed at 1.1452, initial bias is neutral this week first. on the upside, break of 1.1452 will target 1.1496 key resistance. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% projection of 1.0774 to 1.1422 from 1.1168 at 1.1568 next. On the downside, break of 1.1325 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1168 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term bearish reversal.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1496 resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Next target is 1.0339 (2017 low). However, sustained break of 1.1496 will argue that such down trend has completed. Rise from 1.0635 could then be seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339. In this case, outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.2555.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish for now as it’s staying below 55 month EMA, as well as decade long falling trend line. Down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in favor to extend through 1.0339 down the road. However, sustained trading above 55 month EMA will firstly suggest that fall from 1.2555 has completed. It would also be an early indication on long term bullish reversal. Focus would be back on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ).