EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0176 short term bottom accelerated higher last week and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 sustained break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of bullish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817. On the downside break of 1.0371 minor support will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.0176 low.
In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed as fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) could either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. Strong support from 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will favor the former case, and sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0722) will argue that the third leg might have started. However, sustained trading below 1.0199 will favor the latter case and bring retest of 0.9534 low.
In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0973). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
