EUR/USD’s up trend resumed last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. On the downside, below 1.1679 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.1452 support to bring another rally.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom was in place already at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019. Rejection by 1.2019 will keep the price actions from 0.9534 as a corrective pattern. But sustained break of 1.2019 will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
