Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2344; (P) 1.2369 (R1) 1.2393; More….

EUR/USD lost momentum after hitting 1.2396, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 1.2302 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Above 1.2396 will target 1.2475 first. Break will target key resistance level at 1.2555 high. However, as EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading pattern from 1.2555, break of 1.2302 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2214 instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

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