EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2413 last week but reversed well ahead of near term falling trend line. Initial bias is now on 1.2214 support his week. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term reversal. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 1.2154 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, break of 1.2413 will turn focus back to 1.2555 high.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It’s still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.