Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1954; (P) 1.1981 (R1) 1.2015; More….

While EUR/USD continues to lose downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, there is no sign of a rebound yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall should target 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2031 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2090) or above.

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In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.


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