GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY’s breach of 172.30 resistance last week argues that larger up trend is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 167.82 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 172.11 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break there will resume whole up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. Nevertheless, firm break of 167.82 support will indicate rejection by 172.11 and extend the corrective pattern from there with another falling leg.

In the longer term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 154.46) holds, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) could still extend higher at a later stage to 195.86 (2015 high).

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