Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2928; (P) 1.3003; (R1) 1.3047; More…
GBP/USD’s break of 1.2951 support now suggests that rebound from 1.2692 has already completed at 1.3174 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2661/92 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen at 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. Overall, price actions from 1.2661 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Fall from 1.4376 will resume after such consolidation completes.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
