Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2782; (P) 1.2823; (R1) 1.2849; More

GBP/USD’s break of 1.2764 minor support suggests the choppy fall from 1.3174 is resuming. Intraday is back on the downside for 1.2723 first. Break would bring retest of 1.2661 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.2927 will turn bias back to the upside for another rebound. But after all, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Even in case of strong rebound, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

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In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.


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