Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2693; (P) 1.2729; (R1) 1.2783; More….
GBP/USD rebound to as high as 1.2814 but failed to take out 1.2811 resistance decisively. Intraday bias stays neutral first and larger decline remains in favor to resume later. On the downside, below 1.2615 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.2476 low first. Break will resume the fall from 1.4376. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 1.2811 will be an early signal of trend reversal and bring further rally to 1.3174 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.
