GBP/USD’s rally from 1.1409 continued last week and reached as high as 1.3356. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.2065 to 1.2813 from 1.2251 at 1.3461. On the downside, break of 1.3053 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 1.3514 resistance. Decisive break there should at least confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Further rise should be seen to 1.4376 resistance first. Though, rejection by 1.3514 will retain bearishness for resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up with breach of 55 month EMA. Bullish convergence conditions are also seen in weekly and monthly MACD. Decisive break of 1.3514 will argue that rise from 1.1409 is at least a medium term up trend that corrects that fall from 2.1161 (2007 high). We’ll find out soon.
