GBP/USD’s sharp decline last week confirmed short term topping at 1.3482. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690. Strong rebound from there will suggest that such decline is merely a corrective move. Break of 1.3035 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound. However, sustained break of 1.2690 will argue that the rise from 1.1409 might be completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2201.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.1409 was strong, it’s limited by both 1.3514 resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.3317). The development keeps outlook bearish. Sustained break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.2743) will add to medium term bearishness for a new low below 1.1409 at a later stage, resuming the down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high).
In the longer term picture, GBP/USD is staying below decade long trend line from 2.1161 (2007 high). It also struggles to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3317). Long term outlook stays bearish for now, despite bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.
