GBP/USD’s downside acceleration last week and break of 1.2256 fibonacci level suggest larger bearish trend reversal. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Next near term target is 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.1863. On the upside, break of 1.2532 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2486 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, the close below 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.2256 argues that rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has already completed at 1.3433, and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1528, even as a corrective move.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
